CBRE’s Singapore Market Outlook 2025 report, released on January 23, predicts divergent outcomes for the real estate market in the next 12 months due to an uncertain macroeconomic outlook.
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While easing inflation and interest rates are expected to bring some relief to the property market, Moray Armstrong, the managing director and advisory services head at CBRE, warns that slowing economic growth could negatively impact property demand.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry is forecasting Singapore’s GDP growth to be between 1% and 3% in 2025, down from the 4% growth seen in 2024 based on advance estimates released in January.
However, Armstrong says there are other factors that could potentially affect the market in the short term, including ongoing geopolitical tensions, a new US administration with a nationalistic economic agenda, and the URA Master Plan 2025, which is expected to be released in the middle of the year.
Despite the mixed signals, Armstrong believes there are still opportunities in the real estate market for participants who can take advantage of emerging trends. Similarly, CBRE’s head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia, Tricia Song, remains optimistic about the market, citing limited new supply and stable levels of demand as factors that continue to bolster the property market. She predicts that the Singapore real estate market will continue to demonstrate its stability and resilience, making it popular with investors around the world.
According to URA data, developer sales volume tripled to 3,511 units in the last quarter of 2024, bouncing back from record lows in the first nine months of the year. Prices also rose by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, the highest growth recorded in 2024. While this prompted speculation of new cooling measures being implemented, CBRE believes this is unlikely unless there is a sharp increase in prices in the coming quarters.
With improved buying sentiment, CBRE expects developers to proceed with new launches. It is estimated that between 12,000 to 14,000 new units will be launched this year, almost double the 6,647 units launched in 2024. As a result, CBRE projects between 7,000 to 8,000 new homes to be sold in 2025, an increase from the 6,469 units sold in 2024. This higher volume is anticipated to support price growth of 3% to 6% in 2025, following the 3.9% growth seen in 2024. CBRE also predicts that rental rates will grow between 1% and 3% this year.
The office market saw a more muted 2024, with leasing volumes being affected by global economic uncertainties, rising fit-out costs, and hybrid work arrangements. Core CBD (Grade A) rents only grew by 0.4% year-on-year, slowing from the 1.7% growth recorded in 2023.
With economic growth expected to slow in 2025, CBRE predicts that office leasing momentum will remain muted as uncertainties dampen demand for expansion. However, a limited pipeline of new Core CBD (Grade A) offices over the next three years is expected to keep vacancy rates low. An estimated 0.58 million sq ft of new office space will be completed annually between 2025 and 2027, less than half of the 10-year average of 1.28 million sq ft. As a result, CBRE projects that Core CBD (Grade A) rental growth will be around 2% in 2025, in line with GDP projections.
Limited supply is also expected to support rents in the retail property market. The supply of new retail space is forecasted to drop to 0.5 million sq ft in 2025, 40.4% lower than in 2024 and below the 10-year historical average of 0.91 million sq ft per annum. CBRE says that leasing sentiment for retail property remains positive, thanks to inbound tourism and a robust pipeline of entertainment and other events. As a result, CBRE expects average retail prime rents to grow by 2% to 3% in 2025, recovering to pre-pandemic levels.
In the industrial sector, expansion demand by occupiers was subdued in 2024 due to cost pressures and supply chain disruptions triggered by the Red Sea crisis. Prime logistics rents rose by only 1.1% to $1.87 psf per month in 2024. Going into 2025, a bumper supply of almost 5 million sq ft of warehouse space is expected to be completed this year. However, CBRE notes that at least 60% of this space has been pre-committed, which should alleviate downward pressure on occupancy rates. Therefore, the firm predicts that prime logistics rents will remain flat in 2025.
Despite the uncertain economic and geopolitical climate, CBRE believes that real estate investment volume in Singapore will continue to grow in 2025, albeit at a slower pace. In 2024, real estate investment volumes saw a 28% year-on-year increase to $28.62 billion, reversing a 30.3% decline seen in the previous year. This was driven by interest rate cuts that boosted investor sentiment and appetite, which is expected to remain into 2025, according to CBRE’s latest Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey. The majority of investors transacting in Singapore real estate foresee purchasing the same volume or more in 2025 compared to 2024.
However, given the ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, CBRE anticipates that investors will be selective in the near term, choosing to allocate capital to specific sectors or strategies with a more favourable outlook. The firm projects a 10% year-on-year growth in investment volumes in 2025, barring any macroeconomic shocks.
CBRE’s survey also found that the industrial and logistics sector remained the most preferred among investors, followed by residential and office properties.…